[Depth]China’s auto chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 5%, and it is the key to increase weak points

Foreword:

as automotive electronics[大脑]Compared with other consumer Electronic chips, automotive chips have become a technological highland for global auto parts manufacturers due to their higher requirements for reliability.

In the context of the intensified impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the sluggish world economic situation, the supply chain of the global automobile industry chain is frequently broken and blocked.

my country’s auto industry has been[芯片荒]spread

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May this year, my country’s automobile production and sales reached 2.04 million and 2.128 million, down 8.7% and 5.5% from the previous month, and down 6.8% and 3.1% from the same period last year.

In May, my country’s automobile production and sales decreased year-on-year, of which the decline in commercial vehicle production and sales was more obvious. At the same time, the supply side of passenger cars was insufficient, which was related to the reduction of production by car companies due to the shortage of chips.

The amount of chips per car has increased from 500 in 2012 to 1,400 domain controllers in 2022, and the processing power of chips is also improving. It is predicted that by 2035, the share of my country’s automotive semiconductors will reach more than 30% of the global semiconductor.

The demand for chips has increased significantly, and at the same time, the supply of my country’s automotive chips has not kept up.

In the future, there will be 6000-10000 semiconductors in a car. Statistics from ICV Tank show that the global automotive chip market has reached US$46 billion in 2020, and is expected to exceed US$63.5 billion in 2022.

In the face of such a huge and rapidly growing market, the domestic automotive semiconductor supply chain is highly dependent on foreign manufacturers, and the self-sufficiency rate of automotive chips is still less than 10%.

At present, the network communication products used in all new cars are basically dominated by foreign manufacturers. If there is a problem in the supply of manufacturers, they are controlled or embargoed, it will have a huge impact on the production of new cars in my country.

The domestic auto chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 5%

At the end of 2020, the shortage of automotive semiconductors began to enter people’s attention, and then the shortage of automotive semiconductors began to spread on a wider scale. Many well-known automotive companies around the world were affected by the shortage of automotive semiconductors to varying degrees, and some models experienced production delays and production cuts. , and even discontinued production.

The shortage of automotive semiconductors has brought about continuous production reduction or even suspension of production by OEMs, which has caused a significant impact on the global automotive industry.

Up to now, China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency rate is 15%, of which the self-sufficiency rate of automotive chips is less than 5%, and the import rate of automotive chips is as high as 90%.

At present, MCU control chips are the most in short supply among all kinds of chips in my country, and domestic MCU control chip companies are the weakest.

The long-term reason for the contradiction between the supply and demand of automotive chips is that the supply of automotive chips on the supply side is highly concentrated. The top ten companies account for 70% of the entire market, and their production capacity remains stable.

Vehicle-grade MCUs are a market highly monopolized by foreign manufacturers. Except for BYD and other manufacturers, the share of domestic vehicle-grade MCUs is almost zero.

Data from IHS shows that Renesas accounts for 30% of the automotive MCU supply. The world’s seven largest suppliers, Renesas, NXP, Infineon, Cypress, Texas Instruments, Microchip, and STMicroelectronics, have a total of Occupy 98% of the market share.

The main reason for restricting domestic semiconductor chips

In recent years, as my country’s demand for semiconductor chips continues to increase, the problem of chip shortages has become increasingly severe. At the same time, due to the long-term dependence on imports, the key technology of semiconductor chips has been stuck in the neck from time to time.

The supply shortage of automotive semiconductors is not only a common global problem, but also reflects the deep-seated problem of the mismatch between supply and demand in my country’s automotive industry and semiconductor industry.

At present, there are two main factors restricting the development of semiconductor chips in my country:

① The lithography machine determines the manufacturing accuracy of the semiconductor chip, which also determines whether it can be developed to smaller units.

②In the part of industrial software, in the field of chip design, the matching degree of industrial software is more required.

Although the average annual growth rate of my country’s integrated circuit industry has exceeded 20% in recent years, the self-sufficiency of chips is still insufficient.

After this core shortage incident, it is expected that car companies and their first- and second-tier suppliers will increase the introduction of multiple suppliers and strengthen product certification, which provides a golden opportunity for the development of domestic automotive semiconductors.

Domestic semiconductor companies should focus on their own advantages based on their own foundations, make products in this direction to the extreme, and benchmark against foreign manufacturers’ products to catch up or even surpass each other, so that it is possible to truly achieve domestic substitution.

Focus on increasing research on chip problems

① Focus on the breakpoints and blockages with high external dependence on chips and high-end components, effectively strengthen upstream and downstream linkages and joint industry-university-research research, improve effective supply, and improve industrial basic capabilities and industrial chain modernization.

②Strengthen cross-border integration and external cooperation, and continue to contribute to the prosperity of the global auto industry with a higher level of opening up and international cooperation.

③ Vigorously develop energy-saving vehicles, and accelerate the breakthrough and application of environmental protection, energy saving, safety, and information technology.

④ Carry out research on modularization, generalization and standardization of new energy vehicles, increase the proportion of product development and production, and enhance core competitiveness.

⑤ Actively promote the development of various technical routes such as energy-saving vehicles, electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and promote the overall level of the industry.

end:

At present, there are several core problems in my country’s automotive chip industry, including imperfect standard system, lack of testing and certification, insufficient technology research and development capabilities, lack of application of key products, lack of accumulation of vehicle regulation technology and serious shortage of ecological construction. This also provides a window opportunity for reshaping the domestic automotive semiconductor industry chain.

Reference for some materials: Semiconductor Industry Observation: “Experts: China’s auto chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 5%, MCU is particularly weak”, the financial industry: “The chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 70% by 2025, the industry believes that two constraints need to be solved”, Jian Car Reviews: “Automobile Chip Wars”, Auto K-Line: “Lack of Cores has taught China’s auto industry a lesson! 》

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Author | Fang Wen