The domestic replacement process has been started, and the next golden decade of consumer electronics

Entering the 5G era, AI, Internet of Things, automotive electronics, smart wear, etc. have sprung up, and the electronics industry has ushered in new development opportunities.

At the same time, with the upgrading of my country’s industrial manufacturing, the chip and semiconductor industry has grasped the contradiction between demand and supply. Driven by the external environment and internal circulation, a breakthrough in localization is being achieved.

The industrial chain enters a new cycle of the Internet of Things with the iteration of technology

With the advent of the 5G era, consumer electronics have ushered in a wave of mobile phone replacements and the outbreak of smart terminal products. Relevant supply chain companies have benefited from domestic advanced manufacturing and perfect supporting industries, and gradually began to be able to undertake terminal assembly. business.

The era of 5G and the Internet of Things has started, and consumer electronics terminals will be extended on a large scale. The iteration cycle of the electronics industry can be superimposed by two trend indicators of the iteration cycle of communication technology (3G/4G/5G) + core products (PC/smartphone/Internet of Things).

Consumer electronics terminals will be greatly extended, extending from PCs and smart phones to smart speakers, headphones, watches, smart homes, cars, etc.

The multi-terminal integration of the ecosystem, the process from the PC to the smartphone, the two systems are independent and the degree of dependence is not strong. Wear and other multi-terminals.

The domestic replacement process has been started, and the next golden decade of consumer electronics

5G commercial use opens up a new wave of VR/AR boom

5G commercialization has promoted the application scope of VR/AR from live broadcast, games and other consumer entertainment fields, and accelerated its penetration into vertical fields such as industry, medical care, and education, and achieved large-scale development.

It is expected that the scale of China’s VR and AR market will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2022, becoming the growth center of the global virtual reality market.

Unlike other markets in the world, the proportion of AR/VR headsets in the Chinese market in the B-end is significantly higher than that in the C-end.

It is estimated that in 2021, 20%-30% of young consumers across the country will play offline VR games in shopping malls for gaming experience.

5G, cloud computing and AI have provided a powerful infrastructure for the VR industry, which has accelerated the implementation of VR in the commercial field.

VR has made significant breakthroughs in the fields of software, hardware and content, and data has become the key to the competition of VR manufacturers.

In the future, whether it is 3D space reconstruction or deep AI applications, in 2021, larger and finer-grained data will be the foundation for the sustainable development of VR in the commercial field.

The domestic replacement process has been started, and the next golden decade of consumer electronics

Emerging application prospects represented by TWS headsets can be expected

TWS (True Wireless Stereo Technology) headphones are becoming an important part of the intelligent connection of all things, and have started a large-scale connection process for consumer electronics peripheral products, wireless transmitter products and other core equipment of the Internet of Things. 2021 is expected to be the year of TWS headphones. .

In 2019, TWS headset shipments reached 129 million units, a year-on-year increase of 180.43%. It is expected that shipments will reach 350 million units in 2021, and emerging applications represented by TWS are promising.

The domestic replacement process has been started, and the next golden decade of consumer electronics

The fast-charging market is rapidly popularizing and iterating rapidly

In the future, with the increasing demand for fast charging and the penetration rate of GaN, the market size is expected to reach 8.774 billion yuan in 2022.

With the continuous improvement of various parameters of 5G mobile phones, the power consumption of internal radio frequency, processor, and screen is rising, and the demand for fast charging of Electronic products is increasing.

After a number of manufacturers released GaN fast charging, the current price is acceptable to most users, and the penetration rate is expected to gradually increase in the future.

Assuming that the penetration rate of GaN fast charging for smartphones is 1%, 3%, and 5% in the next three years, the global GaN charger market is expected to reach 2.441 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 8.774 billion yuan in 2022.

MLCC increments come from new energy vehicles and 5G equipment

As the most important consumer electronics production base, China has become a major producer and consumer of MLCC, and its production and sales ranks among the top in the world.

From the perspective of MLCC product demand, it is mainly used in aviation, ships, weapons, electronic countermeasures and other military products, communication equipment, industrial control, medical, automotive electronics, instrumentation, oil exploration, rail transit and other industrial products as well as computers, cameras and other industrial products. , mobile phones, audio and video equipment and almost all consumer electronic products.

With the arrival of the 5G phone replacement wave, the MLCC demand for 5G mobile phones is expected to more than double that of 4G mobile phones. Various mobile phone brands are launching innovative products, and functions such as wireless charging, full screen, and multiple cameras have also increased the demand for MLCCs.

Flexible screens will continue to drive demand for mobile phone AMOLED

The shipment of flexible AMOLED panels will reach 340 million units in 2020, surpassing the shipments of rigid AMOLED panels of 315.9 million units, and the proportion will increase from 38.9% in 2018 to 52%.

Terminal manufacturers such as Samsung and Huawei have successively released folding mobile phones, and the core technology behind the folding screen lies in the flexible OLED Panel.

At present, due to the fact that there are not many manufacturers of energy-producing folding screens, the shipment in 2019 is only about 1.1 million units, and the penetration rate is low.

In the future, as more panel manufacturers join in, the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones will increase significantly. WitsView expects that the penetration rate is expected to exceed 3.4% by 2022.

Mobile phone camera upgrade trend remains unchanged

The overall innovation frequency of smartphones has slowed down, and the current camera is the main battlefield of mobile phone innovation.

From single camera to dual camera to triple camera, the number of cameras continues to increase. From 2015 to 2019, the total number of cameras on smartphones worldwide increased from 1.19 billion to 2.334 billion.

The penetration rate of three cameras will continue to increase. In 2019, the CMOS camera module market will be US$31.3 billion. Benefiting from the continued strong demand for downstream applications, it is expected to reach US$57 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 12.8%.

The market space for 3D perception is vast. In 2019, the market space for 3D perception is US$5 billion, and it is expected to reach US$15 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of up to 20%.

The electronic wave of new energy vehicles

Consumption upgrade + new energy promotes the value of automotive electronic stand-alone, and the market prospect is broad. It is estimated that my country’s shipments will reach 3.55 million units in 2022, which will greatly increase the demand for automotive electronics.

At the same time, with the improvement of residents’ consumption level, the proportion of models to mid-to-high-end vehicles and new energy vehicles has increased, and the cost of automotive electronic products has gradually increased in the proportion of the entire vehicle.

In addition, compared with Japan (80%), there is still a lot of room for improvement in the current domestic front-mounted vehicle electronics penetration rate.

According to China Industry Information, it is estimated that the scale of China’s automotive electronics market will reach 996.8 billion yuan in 2022, and the CAGR from 2017 to 2022 will reach 11.5%.

The application scenarios of laser will continue to expand

In recent years, due to the increasingly high requirements of mobile phone waterproofness, it is more suitable to choose laser drilling for small aperture processing.

Sapphire glass mobile phone screen laser cutting, camera protection lens laser cutting, FPC flexible circuit board laser cutting, etc.

It is expected that with the construction of 5G, a new wave of replacements will boost the demand for laser equipment, and it is expected that the global demand for smartphones will resume growth in 2021.

Taking Han’s Laser, a leader in consumer electronic laser equipment, as an example, the revenue of Han’s Laser in the first three quarters of 2020 reached 8.9 billion yuan, an increase of 28%, mainly due to the recovery of downstream consumer electronics demand.

Domestic replacement process has been started

Domestic manufacturers have begun to break through from components such as switches, and gradually gain a firm foothold;

Affected by the newly added 5G frequency band, the number of mobile phone antennas has increased significantly;

5G and wireless charging require that the back cover of mobile phones must be made of non-metallic materials, and glass and composite sheets will usher in opportunities.

Smart watches are the most important link in the ecological chain of various manufacturers, and the way they are worn determines that they are the best entrance to obtain user health and exercise data.

At present, all major smartphone manufacturers are equipped with smartwatch products. According to IDC’s forecast, the shipment of smartwatches will exceed 130 million units in 2023.

China is the world’s largest producer, exporter and consumer of consumer electronics. Under the background of Sino-US trade friction, domestic terminal manufacturers have begun to gradually transfer their supply chains to the country under the consideration of security, and domestic substitution is the general trend.

Domestic substitution is still the biggest factor driving the development of semiconductors, and wearable/AIOT will drive the next golden decade of consumer electronics.

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